Prediction: J-Fred will remain as Chairman

So we are just a few days out from the J-Fred fiasco on April 4. From the few people that have indicated their agreement with the letter of condemnation, and the few that have expressed opposition, one things is clear:

The folks who "signed" on to the letter calling for J-Fred's ouster for the most part did not see or even fully understand the contents of the charges. Many of these people will be faced with the suggestion that they agreed with accusations, that they did not actually believe. The folks who shopped the concept of removing J-Fred did not properly shop the letter. Some SCC members will not want to be associated with the direct accusations, and only agreed to ouster based on a general feeling that they wanted someone else. Further, these folks may have never wanted it to come down to a forced vote, they may not have minded threats, or even scheduling the vote, but essentially they do not want their bluff called.

J-Fred appears to be calling their bluff. I don't think the SCC has the votes to oust J-Fred. J-Fred will not resign.

We will have a chairman that neither has the support of a clear majority of the grassroots, or elected officials, nor does he have the general credibility to be the public face of the party.

J-Fred's brand has been trashed, remaining in his position will leave an open wound all election cycle. Those who support ouster should have thought about how to deal with all these contingencies.

Scorched Earth is the order of the day. Republicans in Virginia will have temporary leaders in three statewide candidates, and then chaos in December.